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Air Force vs Army prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Army
AF 31% win69% ARMY
24Projected33If AF upsets
vs
31Projected24If AF upsetsAway
Air Force Falcons
Record 5–2 · #74 in ratings
Home
Army Black Knights
Record 5–2 · #49 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Low (37)
Starts at 37, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | AF | ARMY | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 48 | 35 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog31%Air Force wins on the road
If Air Force plays at home48% ▲
Air Force: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Army: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Louisiana Tech 29–31, South Florida 24–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Air Force won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ARMY 34, AF 2767 games
- ARMY 34, AF 2063 games
- ARMY 30, AF 2755 games
- AF 27, ARMY 2355 games
- ARMY 31, AF 1753 games
- Power index
- 47 vs 65
- Projected
- ARMY favored
- Differential
- 6.9 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Army, luck set to low. The real game is Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Army.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Army by 6.9
- Projected total
- 55.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Air Force wins by 21+
- 2.8%
- Army wins by 21+
- 16.7%
- Median score
- 24–31
- Model expectation
- 24–30.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Air Force wins, bars on the left are Army wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Air Force offense vs Army defenseOffense +0.0Defense +0.3Even: neither side has a real edge.
Army offense vs Air Force defenseOffense +3.2Defense -0.4Edge Army: its offense is 3.7 points better than Air Force's defense.
| Stat | Air Force | Army | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.32 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.9% | 50.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 44.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.4 | 35.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 22.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.