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Florida Atlantic vs North Texas prediction
Kickoff Thu 6:30 PM CT, at North Texas
FAU 22% win78% UNT
34Projected
vs
46ProjectedAway
Florida Atlantic Owls
Record 5–2 · #92 in ratings
Home
North Texas Mean Green
Record 5–2 · #41 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 71
- Projected
- UNT favored
- Differential
- 11.6 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at North Texas, luck set to normal. The real game is Thu 6:30 PM CT, at North Texas.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Texas by 11.6
- Projected total
- 79.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.3%
- Florida Atlantic wins by 21+
- 1.9%
- North Texas wins by 21+
- 27.6%
- Median score
- 34–46
- Model expectation
- 33.8–45.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida Atlantic wins, bars on the left are North Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Texas 44, Florida Atlantic 3442 games
- North Texas 51, Florida Atlantic 3440 games
- North Texas 51, Florida Atlantic 3738 games
- North Texas 44, Florida Atlantic 3738 games
- North Texas 40, Florida Atlantic 2737 games
- North Texas 41, Florida Atlantic 3735 games
Where the edges are
Florida Atlantic offense vs North Texas defenseOffense +4.0Defense -5.6Edge Florida Atlantic: its offense is 9.6 points better than North Texas's defense.
North Texas offense vs Florida Atlantic defenseOffense +10.1Defense -8.0Edge North Texas: its offense is 18.1 points better than Florida Atlantic's defense.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | North Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.37 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.26 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.0% | 49.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 44.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.3 | 43.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.