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Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State prediction
Kickoff Wed 7:00 PM CT, at New Mexico State
JXST 51% win49% NMSU
28Projected
vs
27ProjectedAway
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Home
New Mexico State Aggies
Record 3–4 · #100 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 41 vs 28
- Projected
- JXST favored
- Differential
- 0.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at New Mexico State, luck set to normal. The real game is Wed 7:00 PM CT, at New Mexico State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Jacksonville State by 0.5
- Projected total
- 55.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 9.7%
- New Mexico State wins by 21+
- 8.5%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 27.5–27.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Jacksonville State wins, bars on the left are New Mexico State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- New Mexico State 27, Jacksonville State 2056 games
- New Mexico State 31, Jacksonville State 2750 games
- Jacksonville State 27, New Mexico State 2048 games
- Jacksonville State 31, New Mexico State 2047 games
- New Mexico State 30, Jacksonville State 2746 games
- Jacksonville State 27, New Mexico State 2345 games
Where the edges are
Jacksonville State offense vs New Mexico State defenseOffense -0.2Defense -3.4Edge Jacksonville State: its offense is 3.2 points better than New Mexico State's defense.
New Mexico State offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -1.8Defense -1.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | New Mexico State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 38.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.3 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.