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Missouri State vs Sam Houston prediction
Kickoff Tue 7:00 PM CT, at Missouri State
MOST 57% win43% SHSU
27Projected
vs
25ProjectedHome
Missouri State Bears
Record 2–5 · #130 in ratings
Away
Sam Houston Bearkats
Record 1–6 · #126 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 6 vs 9
- Projected
- MOST favored
- Differential
- 2.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Missouri State, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 7:00 PM CT, at Missouri State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Missouri State by 2.5
- Projected total
- 51.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Missouri State wins by 21+
- 11.6%
- Sam Houston wins by 21+
- 6.0%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 26.5–24.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Missouri State wins, bars on the left are Sam Houston wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Missouri State 27, Sam Houston 2069 games
- Missouri State 24, Sam Houston 2068 games
- Sam Houston 27, Missouri State 2056 games
- Missouri State 27, Sam Houston 2456 games
- Missouri State 27, Sam Houston 2352 games
- Missouri State 20, Sam Houston 1752 games
Where the edges are
Missouri State offense vs Sam Houston defenseOffense -2.7Defense -1.9Even: neither side has a real edge.
Sam Houston offense vs Missouri State defenseOffense -8.7Defense -8.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Missouri State | Sam Houston | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | -0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.27 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.1% | 37.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 34.9 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.