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Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee prediction
Kickoff Wed 6:00 PM CT, at Middle Tennessee
KENN 36% win64% MTSU
19Projected
vs
24ProjectedAway
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Home
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 16 vs 23
- Projected
- MTSU favored
- Differential
- 5.0 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Middle Tennessee, luck set to normal. The real game is Wed 6:00 PM CT, at Middle Tennessee.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Middle Tennessee by 5.0
- Projected total
- 43.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.7%
- Went to overtime
- 4.3%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 3.8%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 14.3%
- Median score
- 19–24
- Model expectation
- 18.9–24
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kennesaw State wins, bars on the left are Middle Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Middle Tennessee 24, Kennesaw State 1790 games
- Middle Tennessee 20, Kennesaw State 1785 games
- Middle Tennessee 24, Kennesaw State 2074 games
- Kennesaw State 24, Middle Tennessee 1767 games
- Middle Tennessee 24, Kennesaw State 1367 games
- Middle Tennessee 17, Kennesaw State 1064 games
Where the edges are
Kennesaw State offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense -7.7Defense -2.4Edge Middle Tennessee: its defense is 5.4 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
Middle Tennessee offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense -3.9Defense -0.6Edge Kennesaw State: its defense is 3.3 points better than Middle Tennessee's offense.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 41.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 45.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.0 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.