Loading the matchup…
James Madison vs Troy prediction
Kickoff Thu 6:30 PM CT, at James Madison
JMU 92% win8% TROY
37Projected
vs
16ProjectedHome
James Madison Dukes
Record 7–1 · #21 in ratings
Away
Troy Trojans
Record 3–4 · #124 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 10
- Projected
- JMU favored
- Differential
- 20.8 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at James Madison, luck set to normal. The real game is Thu 6:30 PM CT, at James Madison.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- James Madison by 20.8
- Projected total
- 53.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 17.4%
- Went to overtime
- 1.3%
- James Madison wins by 21+
- 50.6%
- Troy wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Median score
- 37–16
- Model expectation
- 36.7–16.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are James Madison wins, bars on the left are Troy wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- James Madison 30, Troy 1763 games
- James Madison 37, Troy 1060 games
- James Madison 34, Troy 1756 games
- James Madison 37, Troy 754 games
- James Madison 34, Troy 1053 games
- James Madison 27, Troy 1752 games
Where the edges are
James Madison offense vs Troy defenseOffense +5.4Defense -4.0Edge James Madison: its offense is 9.4 points better than Troy's defense.
Troy offense vs James Madison defenseOffense -5.0Defense +3.1Edge James Madison: its defense is 8.2 points better than Troy's offense.
| Stat | James Madison | Troy | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.23 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.6% | 40.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 40.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.4 | 22.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3 | 24.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.