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Charlotte vs Tulane prediction
Kickoff Fri 6:00 PM CT, at Charlotte
CLT 26% win74% TULN
18Projected
vs
27ProjectedHome
Charlotte 49ers
Record 1–6 · #135 in ratings
Away
Tulane Green Wave
Record 3–4 · #89 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 2 vs 36
- Projected
- TULN favored
- Differential
- 9.1 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Charlotte, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 6:00 PM CT, at Charlotte.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tulane by 9.1
- Projected total
- 45.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Charlotte wins by 21+
- 2.2%
- Tulane wins by 21+
- 21.1%
- Median score
- 17–27
- Model expectation
- 17.8–26.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Charlotte wins, bars on the left are Tulane wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Tulane 27, Charlotte 1777 games
- Tulane 27, Charlotte 1077 games
- Tulane 20, Charlotte 1768 games
- Tulane 20, Charlotte 1065 games
- Tulane 24, Charlotte 2060 games
- Tulane 27, Charlotte 2059 games
Where the edges are
Charlotte offense vs Tulane defenseOffense -7.3Defense +2.2Edge Tulane: its defense is 9.5 points better than Charlotte's offense.
Tulane offense vs Charlotte defenseOffense -5.9Defense -8.5Edge Tulane: its offense is 2.5 points better than Charlotte's defense.
| Stat | Charlotte | Tulane | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.8% | 32.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.4% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.1 | 20.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 40.6 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.