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Air Force vs Navy prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AF 56% win44% NAVY
29Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Air Force Falcons
Record 5–2 · #74 in ratings
Neutral site
Navy Midshipmen
Record 2–5 · #84 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 39
- Projected
- AF favored
- Differential
- 2.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Air Force by 2.1
- Projected total
- 55.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Air Force wins by 21+
- 10.9%
- Navy wins by 21+
- 6.9%
- Median score
- 28–27
- Model expectation
- 28.4–26.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Air Force wins, bars on the left are Navy wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Navy 34, Air Force 2758 games
- Air Force 24, Navy 2056 games
- Air Force 27, Navy 2455 games
- Navy 27, Air Force 2051 games
- Navy 24, Air Force 2049 games
- Air Force 31, Navy 2749 games
Where the edges are
Air Force offense vs Navy defenseOffense +0.0Defense -2.6Edge Air Force: its offense is 2.6 points better than Navy's defense.
Navy offense vs Air Force defenseOffense +0.1Defense -0.4Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Air Force | Navy | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.9% | 47.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.4 | 29.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 29.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.