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Air Force vs Nevada prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AF 57% win43% NEV
28Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Air Force Falcons
Record 5–2 · #74 in ratings
Neutral site
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 37
- Projected
- AF favored
- Differential
- 2.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Air Force by 2.8
- Projected total
- 52.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Air Force wins by 21+
- 12.1%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 6.1%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 27.3–24.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Air Force wins, bars on the left are Nevada wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nevada 24, Air Force 2062 games
- Air Force 24, Nevada 2056 games
- Air Force 27, Nevada 2053 games
- Air Force 27, Nevada 2451 games
- Nevada 27, Air Force 2351 games
- Air Force 20, Nevada 1750 games
Where the edges are
Air Force offense vs Nevada defenseOffense +0.0Defense -1.5Edge Air Force: its offense is 1.5 points better than Nevada's defense.
Nevada offense vs Air Force defenseOffense -1.9Defense -0.4Edge Air Force: its defense is 1.5 points better than Nevada's offense.
| Stat | Air Force | Nevada | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.9% | 40.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 36.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.4 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 22.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.