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Air Force vs North Dakota State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AF 30% win70% NDSU
19Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Air Force Falcons
Record 5–2 · #74 in ratings
Neutral site
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 78
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 7.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 7.1
- Projected total
- 45.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Air Force wins by 21+
- 3.0%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 17.0%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 19–26.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Air Force wins, bars on the left are North Dakota State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- North Dakota State 24, Air Force 2075 games
- North Dakota State 20, Air Force 1774 games
- North Dakota State 24, Air Force 1769 games
- North Dakota State 27, Air Force 1066 games
- North Dakota State 27, Air Force 2064 games
- North Dakota State 17, Air Force 1059 games
Where the edges are
Air Force offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense +0.0Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 6.8 points better than Air Force's offense.
North Dakota State offense vs Air Force defenseOffense +0.0Defense -0.4Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Air Force | North Dakota State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | -0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.9% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 36.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.4 | 27.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 12.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.