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Air Force vs Northern Illinois prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AF 92% win8% NIU
38Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
Air Force Falcons
Record 5–2 · #74 in ratings
Neutral site
Northern Illinois Huskies
Record 0–7 · #138 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 0
- Projected
- AF favored
- Differential
- 20.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Air Force by 20.0
- Projected total
- 55.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 17.6%
- Went to overtime
- 1.2%
- Air Force wins by 21+
- 48.7%
- Northern Illinois wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Median score
- 37–17
- Model expectation
- 37.5–17.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Air Force wins, bars on the left are Northern Illinois wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Air Force 37, Northern Illinois 1770 games
- Air Force 30, Northern Illinois 1067 games
- Air Force 41, Northern Illinois 1763 games
- Air Force 44, Northern Illinois 1761 games
- Air Force 34, Northern Illinois 1061 games
- Air Force 33, Northern Illinois 1759 games
Where the edges are
Air Force offense vs Northern Illinois defenseOffense +0.0Defense -11.7Edge Air Force: its offense is 11.7 points better than Northern Illinois's defense.
Northern Illinois offense vs Air Force defenseOffense -8.7Defense -0.4Edge Air Force: its defense is 8.2 points better than Northern Illinois's offense.
| Stat | Air Force | Northern Illinois | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.34 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.9% | 37.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 52.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.4 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 38.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.