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Air Force vs UConn prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:00 PM CT, at Air Force
AF 55% win45% CONN
29Projected
vs
27ProjectedHome
Air Force Falcons
Record 5–2 · #74 in ratings
Away
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 56
- Projected
- AF favored
- Differential
- 1.7 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Air Force, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:00 PM CT, at Air Force.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Air Force by 1.7
- Projected total
- 56.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Air Force wins by 21+
- 10.6%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 6.9%
- Median score
- 29–27
- Model expectation
- 28.9–27.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Air Force wins, bars on the left are UConn wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Air Force 27, UConn 2062 games
- Air Force 34, UConn 2055 games
- UConn 27, Air Force 2052 games
- UConn 27, Air Force 2351 games
- UConn 24, Air Force 2049 games
- Air Force 27, UConn 2448 games
Where the edges are
Air Force offense vs UConn defenseOffense +0.0Defense -1.6Edge Air Force: its offense is 1.6 points better than UConn's defense.
UConn offense vs Air Force defenseOffense +2.4Defense -0.4Edge UConn: its offense is 2.9 points better than Air Force's defense.
| Stat | Air Force | UConn | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.9% | 43.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.4 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 23.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.