Loading the matchup…
Akron vs Buffalo prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 AM CT, at Akron
AKR 40% win60% BUF
25Projected33If AKR upsets
vs
29Projected22If AKR upsetsHome
Akron Zips
Record 1–7 · #133 in ratings
Away
Buffalo Bulls
Record 5–3 · #122 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (54)
Starts at 54, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | AKR | BUF | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 70 | 47 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up40%Akron wins at home
At a neutral site33% ▼
Akron: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Buffalo: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Akron won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- BUF 27, AKR 2055 games
- AKR 27, BUF 2050 games
- BUF 31, AKR 2749 games
- BUF 27, AKR 2348 games
- BUF 20, AKR 1747 games
- Power index
- 4 vs 12
- Projected
- BUF favored
- Differential
- 3.9 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Akron, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 AM CT, at Akron.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Buffalo by 3.9
- Projected total
- 54.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Akron wins by 21+
- 6.3%
- Buffalo wins by 21+
- 14.6%
- Median score
- 24–29
- Model expectation
- 25.2–28.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Akron wins, bars on the left are Buffalo wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Akron offense vs Buffalo defenseOffense -5.8Defense -3.7Edge Buffalo: its defense is 2.1 points better than Akron's offense.
Buffalo offense vs Akron defenseOffense -4.9Defense -9.5Edge Buffalo: its offense is 4.6 points better than Akron's defense.
| Stat | Akron | Buffalo | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.09 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 35.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 39.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.0 | 22.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.8 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.