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Akron vs Central Michigan prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AKR 31% win69% CMU
21Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Akron Zips
Record 1–7 · #133 in ratings
Neutral site
Central Michigan Chippewas
Record 3–5 · #117 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 15
- Projected
- CMU favored
- Differential
- 7.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Central Michigan by 7.2
- Projected total
- 48.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Akron wins by 21+
- 3.1%
- Central Michigan wins by 21+
- 17.9%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 20.7–27.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Akron wins, bars on the left are Central Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Central Michigan 27, Akron 2072 games
- Central Michigan 24, Akron 1772 games
- Central Michigan 20, Akron 1768 games
- Central Michigan 24, Akron 2064 games
- Central Michigan 27, Akron 1763 games
- Central Michigan 20, Akron 1062 games
Where the edges are
Akron offense vs Central Michigan defenseOffense -5.8Defense -0.8Edge Central Michigan: its defense is 5.0 points better than Akron's offense.
Central Michigan offense vs Akron defenseOffense -7.5Defense -9.5Edge Central Michigan: its offense is 1.9 points better than Akron's defense.
| Stat | Akron | Central Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.19 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 39.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 46.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.0 | 17.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.8 | 25.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.