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Akron vs Kent State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AKR 39% win61% KENT
21Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Akron Zips
Record 1–7 · #133 in ratings
Neutral site
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 7
- Projected
- KENT favored
- Differential
- 4.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kent State by 4.1
- Projected total
- 46.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.6%
- Akron wins by 21+
- 4.4%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 12.6%
- Median score
- 20–24
- Model expectation
- 20.9–25
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Akron wins, bars on the left are Kent State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kent State 20, Akron 1775 games
- Kent State 27, Akron 1771 games
- Kent State 24, Akron 2070 games
- Kent State 27, Akron 2069 games
- Akron 24, Kent State 2067 games
- Kent State 24, Akron 1761 games
Where the edges are
Akron offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -5.8Defense -1.0Edge Kent State: its defense is 4.9 points better than Akron's offense.
Kent State offense vs Akron defenseOffense -10.2Defense -9.5Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Akron | Kent State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | -0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 35.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 45.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.0 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.8 | 30.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.