Loading the matchup…
Akron vs Minnesota prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AKR 17% win83% MINN
18Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Akron Zips
Record 1–7 · #133 in ratings
Neutral site
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record 5–2 · #79 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 43
- Projected
- MINN favored
- Differential
- 14.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Minnesota by 14.1
- Projected total
- 50.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 28.4%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Akron wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Minnesota wins by 21+
- 32.5%
- Median score
- 17–31
- Model expectation
- 17.8–31.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Akron wins, bars on the left are Minnesota wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Minnesota 30, Akron 1064 games
- Minnesota 34, Akron 1764 games
- Minnesota 34, Akron 1059 games
- Minnesota 30, Akron 1754 games
- Minnesota 20, Akron 1754 games
- Minnesota 23, Akron 1754 games
Where the edges are
Akron offense vs Minnesota defenseOffense -5.8Defense +2.1Edge Minnesota: its defense is 8.0 points better than Akron's offense.
Minnesota offense vs Akron defenseOffense -3.4Defense -9.5Edge Minnesota: its offense is 6.1 points better than Akron's defense.
| Stat | Akron | Minnesota | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 39.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 40.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.0 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.8 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.