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Akron vs UNLV prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AKR 17% win83% UNLV
18Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Akron Zips
Record 1–7 · #133 in ratings
Neutral site
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 44
- Projected
- UNLV favored
- Differential
- 14.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UNLV by 14.5
- Projected total
- 50.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.7%
- Went to overtime
- 2.2%
- Akron wins by 21+
- 1.0%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 34.1%
- Median score
- 17–31
- Model expectation
- 17.7–32.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Akron wins, bars on the left are UNLV wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UNLV 34, Akron 1065 games
- UNLV 27, Akron 1061 games
- UNLV 37, Akron 1060 games
- UNLV 27, Akron 1758 games
- UNLV 34, Akron 1756 games
- UNLV 24, Akron 1755 games
Where the edges are
Akron offense vs UNLV defenseOffense -5.8Defense +2.3Edge UNLV: its defense is 8.1 points better than Akron's offense.
UNLV offense vs Akron defenseOffense -3.1Defense -9.5Edge UNLV: its offense is 6.4 points better than Akron's defense.
| Stat | Akron | UNLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 38.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 40.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.0 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.8 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.