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Akron vs Wake Forest prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AKR 3% win97% WAKE
14Projected
vs
40ProjectedNeutral site
Akron Zips
Record 1–7 · #133 in ratings
Neutral site
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record 6–1 · #11 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 4 vs 93
- Projected
- WAKE favored
- Differential
- 26.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wake Forest by 26.3
- Projected total
- 53.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 8.7%
- Went to overtime
- 0.4%
- Akron wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Wake Forest wins by 21+
- 66.3%
- Median score
- 13–40
- Model expectation
- 13.5–39.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Akron wins, bars on the left are Wake Forest wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wake Forest 37, Akron 778 games
- Wake Forest 41, Akron 1077 games
- Wake Forest 44, Akron 1075 games
- Wake Forest 40, Akron 1072 games
- Wake Forest 37, Akron 1071 games
- Wake Forest 33, Akron 765 games
Where the edges are
Akron offense vs Wake Forest defenseOffense -5.8Defense +6.4Edge Wake Forest: its defense is 12.3 points better than Akron's offense.
Wake Forest offense vs Akron defenseOffense +4.6Defense -9.5Edge Wake Forest: its offense is 14.1 points better than Akron's defense.
| Stat | Akron | Wake Forest | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.23 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 49.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 41.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.0 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.8 | 19.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.