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Alabama vs Georgia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ALA 60% win40% UGA
32Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record 6–2 · #4 in ratings
Neutral site
Georgia Bulldogs
Record 6–1 · #7 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 98 vs 96
- Projected
- ALA favored
- Differential
- 3.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Alabama by 3.7
- Projected total
- 60.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Alabama wins by 21+
- 13.0%
- Georgia wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Median score
- 31–27
- Model expectation
- 31.7–27.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Alabama wins, bars on the left are Georgia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia 34, Alabama 2757 games
- Alabama 34, Georgia 2051 games
- Alabama 34, Georgia 2748 games
- Georgia 27, Alabama 2347 games
- Alabama 30, Georgia 2747 games
- Georgia 31, Alabama 3043 games
Where the edges are
Alabama offense vs Georgia defenseOffense +11.2Defense +5.3Edge Alabama: its offense is 5.9 points better than Georgia's defense.
Georgia offense vs Alabama defenseOffense +8.3Defense +6.1Edge Georgia: its offense is 2.2 points better than Alabama's defense.
| Stat | Alabama | Georgia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.26 | 0.33 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.02 | 0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.1% | 53.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.4% | 34.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.3 | 43.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 15.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.