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Alabama vs Kentucky prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ALA 74% win26% UK
36Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record 6–2 · #4 in ratings
Neutral site
Kentucky Wildcats
Record 7–1 · #27 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 98 vs 81
- Projected
- ALA favored
- Differential
- 9.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Alabama by 9.6
- Projected total
- 61.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Alabama wins by 21+
- 24.3%
- Kentucky wins by 21+
- 2.9%
- Median score
- 36–26
- Model expectation
- 35.6–25.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Alabama wins, bars on the left are Kentucky wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Alabama 34, Kentucky 2753 games
- Alabama 37, Kentucky 2049 games
- Alabama 41, Kentucky 2047 games
- Alabama 37, Kentucky 2446 games
- Alabama 30, Kentucky 2045 games
- Alabama 30, Kentucky 2742 games
Where the edges are
Alabama offense vs Kentucky defenseOffense +11.2Defense +1.4Edge Alabama: its offense is 9.8 points better than Kentucky's defense.
Kentucky offense vs Alabama defenseOffense +5.9Defense +6.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Alabama | Kentucky | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.26 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.02 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.1% | 49.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.4% | 44.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.3 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 24.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.