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Alabama vs Tennessee prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ALA 68% win32% TENN
30Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record 6–2 · #4 in ratings
Neutral site
Tennessee Volunteers
Record 6–2 · #14 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 98 vs 91
- Projected
- ALA favored
- Differential
- 6.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Alabama by 6.9
- Projected total
- 53.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Alabama wins by 21+
- 18.3%
- Tennessee wins by 21+
- 3.4%
- Median score
- 30–23
- Model expectation
- 30.1–23.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Alabama wins, bars on the left are Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Alabama 34, Tennessee 2056 games
- Alabama 24, Tennessee 2053 games
- Alabama 24, Tennessee 1751 games
- Alabama 27, Tennessee 2050 games
- Alabama 27, Tennessee 1749 games
- Alabama 30, Tennessee 2047 games
Where the edges are
Alabama offense vs Tennessee defenseOffense +11.2Defense +6.8Edge Alabama: its offense is 4.3 points better than Tennessee's defense.
Tennessee offense vs Alabama defenseOffense +3.6Defense +6.1Edge Alabama: its defense is 2.5 points better than Tennessee's offense.
| Stat | Alabama | Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.26 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.02 | -0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.1% | 43.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.4% | 37.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.3 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 16.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.