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App State vs East Carolina prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
APP 52% win48% ECU
27Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
App State Mountaineers
Record 5–2 · #86 in ratings
Neutral site
East Carolina Pirates
Record 3–4 · #94 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 38 vs 32
- Projected
- APP favored
- Differential
- 0.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- App State by 0.9
- Projected total
- 52.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- App State wins by 21+
- 10.1%
- East Carolina wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 26.3–25.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are App State wins, bars on the left are East Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- East Carolina 24, App State 2060 games
- App State 24, East Carolina 2057 games
- App State 27, East Carolina 2054 games
- App State 24, East Carolina 1746 games
- App State 31, East Carolina 2746 games
- East Carolina 20, App State 1745 games
Where the edges are
App State offense vs East Carolina defenseOffense -1.5Defense -2.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
East Carolina offense vs App State defenseOffense -2.0Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | App State | East Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.5% | 38.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5% | 36.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.1 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.