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App State vs NC State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
APP 53% win47% NCSU
28Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
App State Mountaineers
Record 5–2 · #86 in ratings
Neutral site
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 38 vs 33
- Projected
- APP favored
- Differential
- 1.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- App State by 1.0
- Projected total
- 55.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- App State wins by 21+
- 10.2%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 27.9–27
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are App State wins, bars on the left are NC State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- App State 27, NC State 2062 games
- NC State 27, App State 2053 games
- App State 24, NC State 2051 games
- NC State 34, App State 2748 games
- App State 34, NC State 2047 games
- App State 27, NC State 2347 games
Where the edges are
App State offense vs NC State defenseOffense -1.5Defense -3.7Edge App State: its offense is 2.2 points better than NC State's defense.
NC State offense vs App State defenseOffense -0.4Defense -1.6Edge NC State: its offense is 1.2 points better than App State's defense.
| Stat | App State | NC State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.23 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.5% | 45.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5% | 44.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.1 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 28.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.