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App State vs Old Dominion prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
APP 71% win29% ODU
26Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
App State Mountaineers
Record 5–2 · #86 in ratings
Neutral site
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 38 vs 7
- Projected
- APP favored
- Differential
- 8.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- App State by 8.1
- Projected total
- 44.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- App State wins by 21+
- 19.5%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 2.7%
- Median score
- 26–17
- Model expectation
- 25.9–17.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are App State wins, bars on the left are Old Dominion wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- App State 24, Old Dominion 1782 games
- App State 20, Old Dominion 1772 games
- App State 17, Old Dominion 1067 games
- App State 24, Old Dominion 2066 games
- App State 27, Old Dominion 1064 games
- App State 27, Old Dominion 1764 games
Where the edges are
App State offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense -1.5Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Old Dominion offense vs App State defenseOffense -9.5Defense -1.6Edge App State: its defense is 7.9 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
| Stat | App State | Old Dominion | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | -0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.5% | 30.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5% | 39.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.1 | 15.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 26.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.