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Arizona State vs Baylor prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ASU 26% win74% BAY
22Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Arizona State Sun Devils
Record 4–3 · #96 in ratings
Neutral site
Baylor Bears
Record 4–3 · #35 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 31 vs 75
- Projected
- BAY favored
- Differential
- 9.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Baylor by 9.8
- Projected total
- 54.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Arizona State wins by 21+
- 2.6%
- Baylor wins by 21+
- 24.6%
- Median score
- 21–31
- Model expectation
- 21.9–31.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arizona State wins, bars on the left are Baylor wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Baylor 27, Arizona State 2456 games
- Baylor 27, Arizona State 2053 games
- Baylor 34, Arizona State 2448 games
- Baylor 24, Arizona State 1747 games
- Baylor 27, Arizona State 1747 games
- Baylor 30, Arizona State 2747 games
Where the edges are
Arizona State offense vs Baylor defenseOffense +0.7Defense +4.6Edge Baylor: its defense is 3.9 points better than Arizona State's offense.
Baylor offense vs Arizona State defenseOffense +1.1Defense -5.0Edge Baylor: its offense is 6.0 points better than Arizona State's defense.
| Stat | Arizona State | Baylor | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 37.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 35.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.9 | 29.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9 | 16.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.