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Arizona State vs BYU prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at BYU
ASU 14% win86% BYU
19Projected
vs
36ProjectedAway
Arizona State Sun Devils
Record 4–3 · #96 in ratings
Home
BYU Cougars
Record 6–1 · #18 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 31 vs 88
- Projected
- BYU favored
- Differential
- 16.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at BYU, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at BYU.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- BYU by 16.3
- Projected total
- 55.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 24.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.7%
- Arizona State wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- BYU wins by 21+
- 38.8%
- Median score
- 19–36
- Model expectation
- 19.2–35.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arizona State wins, bars on the left are BYU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- BYU 34, Arizona State 1753 games
- BYU 34, Arizona State 1053 games
- BYU 37, Arizona State 1752 games
- BYU 34, Arizona State 2452 games
- BYU 34, Arizona State 2052 games
- BYU 40, Arizona State 1749 games
Where the edges are
Arizona State offense vs BYU defenseOffense +0.7Defense +5.7Edge BYU: its defense is 5.0 points better than Arizona State's offense.
BYU offense vs Arizona State defenseOffense +3.2Defense -5.0Edge BYU: its offense is 8.2 points better than Arizona State's defense.
| Stat | Arizona State | BYU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.29 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 47.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 38.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.9 | 33.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9 | 18.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.