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Arizona State vs Hawai'i prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ASU 59% win41% HAW
29Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Arizona State Sun Devils
Record 4–3 · #96 in ratings
Neutral site
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Record 2–6 · #114 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 31 vs 18
- Projected
- ASU favored
- Differential
- 3.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Arizona State by 3.4
- Projected total
- 54.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Arizona State wins by 21+
- 12.9%
- Hawai'i wins by 21+
- 6.4%
- Median score
- 28–24
- Model expectation
- 28.5–25.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arizona State wins, bars on the left are Hawai'i wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Arizona State 30, Hawai'i 1753 games
- Hawai'i 27, Arizona State 2052 games
- Arizona State 27, Hawai'i 1751 games
- Arizona State 27, Hawai'i 2451 games
- Arizona State 27, Hawai'i 2050 games
- Arizona State 27, Hawai'i 2349 games
Where the edges are
Arizona State offense vs Hawai'i defenseOffense +0.7Defense -2.0Edge Arizona State: its offense is 2.7 points better than Hawai'i's defense.
Hawai'i offense vs Arizona State defenseOffense -5.5Defense -5.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Arizona State | Hawai'i | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.07 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 43.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.9 | 20.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9 | 24.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.