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Arizona State vs Kansas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ASU 38% win62% KU
27Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Arizona State Sun Devils
Record 4–3 · #96 in ratings
Neutral site
Kansas Jayhawks
Record 3–4 · #71 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 31 vs 49
- Projected
- KU favored
- Differential
- 4.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kansas by 4.4
- Projected total
- 57.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Arizona State wins by 21+
- 5.6%
- Kansas wins by 21+
- 14.6%
- Median score
- 27–30
- Model expectation
- 26.3–30.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arizona State wins, bars on the left are Kansas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kansas 34, Arizona State 2752 games
- Kansas 23, Arizona State 2049 games
- Kansas 27, Arizona State 2049 games
- Kansas 30, Arizona State 2745 games
- Kansas 27, Arizona State 2345 games
- Kansas 34, Arizona State 3044 games
Where the edges are
Arizona State offense vs Kansas defenseOffense +0.7Defense +0.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
Kansas offense vs Arizona State defenseOffense +0.0Defense -5.0Edge Kansas: its offense is 5.0 points better than Arizona State's defense.
| Stat | Arizona State | Kansas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.12 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 41.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 38.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.9 | 31.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9 | 24.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.