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Arizona State vs Texas A&M prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ASU 26% win74% TA&M
20Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Arizona State Sun Devils
Record 4–3 · #96 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas A&M Aggies
Record 4–4 · #38 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 31 vs 73
- Projected
- TA&M favored
- Differential
- 9.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas A&M by 9.6
- Projected total
- 50.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Arizona State wins by 21+
- 2.0%
- Texas A&M wins by 21+
- 22.8%
- Median score
- 20–30
- Model expectation
- 20.2–29.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arizona State wins, bars on the left are Texas A&M wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas A&M 20, Arizona State 1765 games
- Texas A&M 27, Arizona State 1761 games
- Texas A&M 24, Arizona State 2060 games
- Texas A&M 27, Arizona State 1057 games
- Texas A&M 30, Arizona State 1756 games
- Texas A&M 24, Arizona State 1754 games
Where the edges are
Arizona State offense vs Texas A&M defenseOffense +0.7Defense +6.2Edge Texas A&M: its defense is 5.6 points better than Arizona State's offense.
Texas A&M offense vs Arizona State defenseOffense -1.1Defense -5.0Edge Texas A&M: its offense is 3.9 points better than Arizona State's defense.
| Stat | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 42.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 39.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.9 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.