Loading the matchup…
Arizona vs Kansas State prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Kansas State
ARIZ 65% win35% KSU
28Projected21If KSU upsets
vs
23Projected30If KSU upsetsAway
Arizona Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #16 in ratings
Home
Kansas State Wildcats
Record 4–3 · #60 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Low (37)
Starts at 37, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ARIZ | KSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 56 | 37 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog35%Kansas State wins at home
At a neutral site28% ▼
Kansas State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Arizona: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (BYU 17–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kansas State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- KSU 24, ARIZ 2068 games
- ARIZ 27, KSU 2068 games
- ARIZ 20, KSU 1766 games
- ARIZ 27, KSU 1763 games
- ARIZ 27, KSU 2454 games
- Power index
- 89 vs 57
- Projected
- ARIZ favored
- Differential
- 5.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Kansas State, luck set to low. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Kansas State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Arizona by 5.7
- Projected total
- 50.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Arizona wins by 21+
- 15.6%
- Kansas State wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Median score
- 27–23
- Model expectation
- 27.9–22.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arizona wins, bars on the left are Kansas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Arizona offense vs Kansas State defenseOffense +4.8Defense +1.2Edge Arizona: its offense is 3.7 points better than Kansas State's defense.
Kansas State offense vs Arizona defenseOffense -0.0Defense +5.0Edge Arizona: its defense is 5.0 points better than Kansas State's offense.
| Stat | Arizona | Kansas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.27 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.05 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.6% | 45.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.8% | 36.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.1 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
