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Arizona vs Texas Tech prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Texas Tech
ARIZ 46% win54% TTU
27Projected
vs
29ProjectedAway
Arizona Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #16 in ratings
Home
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record 6–1 · #20 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 89 vs 86
- Projected
- TTU favored
- Differential
- 1.8 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas Tech, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Texas Tech.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas Tech by 1.8
- Projected total
- 55.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Arizona wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Texas Tech wins by 21+
- 11.3%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 26.3–28.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arizona wins, bars on the left are Texas Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas Tech 27, Arizona 2062 games
- Texas Tech 27, Arizona 2452 games
- Arizona 27, Texas Tech 2049 games
- Arizona 24, Texas Tech 2048 games
- Texas Tech 31, Arizona 2746 games
- Arizona 31, Texas Tech 2745 games
Where the edges are
Arizona offense vs Texas Tech defenseOffense +4.8Defense +2.8Edge Arizona: its offense is 2.0 points better than Texas Tech's defense.
Texas Tech offense vs Arizona defenseOffense +5.9Defense +5.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Arizona | Texas Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.27 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.05 | -0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.4% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.8% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.1 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.