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Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Coastal Carolina
ARST 44% win56% CCU
25Projected32If ARST upsets
vs
28Projected21If ARST upsetsAway
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Record 4–4 · #90 in ratings
Home
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Record 2–5 · #98 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (56)
Starts at 56, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ARST | CCU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 47 | 64 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up44%Arkansas State wins on the road
If Arkansas State plays at home60% ▲
Arkansas State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Georgia State 38–32)
Coastal Carolina: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Delaware 14–22)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Arkansas State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- CCU 24, ARST 2060 games
- ARST 24, CCU 2059 games
- CCU 27, ARST 2055 games
- CCU 27, ARST 2452 games
- CCU 31, ARST 2750 games
- Power index
- 35 vs 29
- Projected
- CCU favored
- Differential
- 2.4 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Coastal Carolina, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Coastal Carolina.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Coastal Carolina by 2.4
- Projected total
- 53.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Arkansas State wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Coastal Carolina wins by 21+
- 12.0%
- Median score
- 24–27
- Model expectation
- 25.1–27.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas State wins, bars on the left are Coastal Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Arkansas State offense vs Coastal Carolina defenseOffense -1.0Defense -1.9Even: neither side has a real edge.
Coastal Carolina offense vs Arkansas State defenseOffense -2.8Defense -2.9Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Coastal Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.6% | 40.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 46.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 26.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 25.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
