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Arkansas State vs Georgia State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARST 40% win60% GAST
29Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Record 4–4 · #90 in ratings
Neutral site
Georgia State Panthers
Record 4–3 · #70 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 35 vs 50
- Projected
- GAST favored
- Differential
- 4.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia State by 4.1
- Projected total
- 61.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Arkansas State wins by 21+
- 5.6%
- Georgia State wins by 21+
- 14.6%
- Median score
- 28–33
- Model expectation
- 28.5–32.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas State wins, bars on the left are Georgia State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia State 34, Arkansas State 2758 games
- Georgia State 34, Arkansas State 3043 games
- Arkansas State 34, Georgia State 2742 games
- Georgia State 37, Arkansas State 3042 games
- Georgia State 34, Arkansas State 2441 games
- Georgia State 37, Arkansas State 3441 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas State offense vs Georgia State defenseOffense -1.0Defense -3.7Edge Arkansas State: its offense is 2.7 points better than Georgia State's defense.
Georgia State offense vs Arkansas State defenseOffense +3.9Defense -2.9Edge Georgia State: its offense is 6.8 points better than Arkansas State's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Georgia State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.6% | 47.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 39.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 26.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.