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Arkansas State vs Kennesaw State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARST 63% win38% KENN
26Projected
vs
21ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Record 4–4 · #90 in ratings
Neutral site
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 35 vs 16
- Projected
- ARST favored
- Differential
- 4.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
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10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Arkansas State by 4.6
- Projected total
- 46.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.3%
- Arkansas State wins by 21+
- 14.0%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 4.2%
- Median score
- 25–20
- Model expectation
- 25.3–20.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas State wins, bars on the left are Kennesaw State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Arkansas State 20, Kennesaw State 1780 games
- Arkansas State 27, Kennesaw State 1767 games
- Kennesaw State 24, Arkansas State 2067 games
- Arkansas State 27, Kennesaw State 2463 games
- Arkansas State 24, Kennesaw State 2062 games
- Arkansas State 17, Kennesaw State 1361 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas State offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense -1.0Defense -0.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Kennesaw State offense vs Arkansas State defenseOffense -7.7Defense -2.9Edge Arkansas State: its defense is 4.8 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Kennesaw State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.07 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.6% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 43.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.