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Arkansas State vs Louisiana prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARST 38% win62% UL
24Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Record 4–4 · #90 in ratings
Neutral site
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Record 5–3 · #64 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 35 vs 54
- Projected
- UL favored
- Differential
- 4.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisiana by 4.5
- Projected total
- 53.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Arkansas State wins by 21+
- 5.3%
- Louisiana wins by 21+
- 14.6%
- Median score
- 24–28
- Model expectation
- 24.2–28.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas State wins, bars on the left are Louisiana wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Louisiana 27, Arkansas State 2068 games
- Louisiana 27, Arkansas State 1753 games
- Louisiana 24, Arkansas State 2051 games
- Louisiana 30, Arkansas State 2050 games
- Arkansas State 24, Louisiana 2050 games
- Arkansas State 27, Louisiana 2048 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas State offense vs Louisiana defenseOffense -1.0Defense +0.6Edge Louisiana: its defense is 1.6 points better than Arkansas State's offense.
Louisiana offense vs Arkansas State defenseOffense +0.1Defense -2.9Edge Louisiana: its offense is 2.9 points better than Arkansas State's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Louisiana | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.6% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 41.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 30.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.