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Arkansas State vs Memphis prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARST 33% win67% MEM
27Projected
vs
34ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Record 4–4 · #90 in ratings
Neutral site
Memphis Tigers
Record 6–2 · #52 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 35 vs 63
- Projected
- MEM favored
- Differential
- 7.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Memphis by 7.0
- Projected total
- 60.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Arkansas State wins by 21+
- 4.0%
- Memphis wins by 21+
- 19.1%
- Median score
- 27–34
- Model expectation
- 26.4–33.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas State wins, bars on the left are Memphis wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Memphis 27, Arkansas State 2052 games
- Memphis 41, Arkansas State 2047 games
- Memphis 37, Arkansas State 2446 games
- Memphis 34, Arkansas State 2444 games
- Memphis 27, Arkansas State 1742 games
- Memphis 30, Arkansas State 1741 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas State offense vs Memphis defenseOffense -1.0Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Memphis offense vs Arkansas State defenseOffense +4.7Defense -2.9Edge Memphis: its offense is 7.6 points better than Arkansas State's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Memphis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.6% | 48.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 37.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 23.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.