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Arkansas State vs South Alabama prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARST 49% win51% USA
33.5Projected
vs
33.8ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Record 4–4 · #90 in ratings
Neutral site
South Alabama Jaguars
Record 4–3 · #88 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 35 vs 36
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 67.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Arkansas State wins by 21+
- 9.2%
- South Alabama wins by 21+
- 10.0%
- Median score
- 33–34
- Model expectation
- 33.1–33.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas State wins, bars on the left are South Alabama wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Arkansas State 41, South Alabama 3744 games
- South Alabama 34, Arkansas State 3044 games
- South Alabama 37, Arkansas State 3442 games
- Arkansas State 30, South Alabama 2742 games
- Arkansas State 34, South Alabama 2742 games
- Arkansas State 37, South Alabama 3440 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas State offense vs South Alabama defenseOffense -1.0Defense -8.3Edge Arkansas State: its offense is 7.3 points better than South Alabama's defense.
South Alabama offense vs Arkansas State defenseOffense +4.7Defense -2.9Edge South Alabama: its offense is 7.6 points better than Arkansas State's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas State | South Alabama | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.6% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 51.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 35.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.