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Arkansas State vs Southern Miss prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARST 68% win32% USM
33Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Record 4–4 · #90 in ratings
Neutral site
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Record 2–5 · #127 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 35 vs 8
- Projected
- ARST favored
- Differential
- 7.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Arkansas State by 7.0
- Projected total
- 58.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Arkansas State wins by 21+
- 19.0%
- Southern Miss wins by 21+
- 4.0%
- Median score
- 33–26
- Model expectation
- 32.7–25.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas State wins, bars on the left are Southern Miss wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Arkansas State 30, Southern Miss 2058 games
- Arkansas State 34, Southern Miss 2754 games
- Arkansas State 34, Southern Miss 2050 games
- Arkansas State 27, Southern Miss 2049 games
- Arkansas State 30, Southern Miss 2747 games
- Arkansas State 34, Southern Miss 3047 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas State offense vs Southern Miss defenseOffense -1.0Defense -8.0Edge Arkansas State: its offense is 6.9 points better than Southern Miss's defense.
Southern Miss offense vs Arkansas State defenseOffense -2.9Defense -2.9Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Southern Miss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.6% | 41.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 43.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.