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Arkansas vs Missouri prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:45 PM CT, at Arkansas
ARK 28% win72% MIZ
20Projected
vs
28ProjectedHome
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record 3–4 · #91 in ratings
Away
Missouri Tigers
Record 5–2 · #28 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 80
- Projected
- MIZ favored
- Differential
- 8.3 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Arkansas, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:45 PM CT, at Arkansas.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Missouri by 8.3
- Projected total
- 48.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Arkansas wins by 21+
- 2.7%
- Missouri wins by 21+
- 19.9%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 19.8–28
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas wins, bars on the left are Missouri wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Missouri 27, Arkansas 2063 games
- Missouri 27, Arkansas 1362 games
- Missouri 23, Arkansas 1761 games
- Missouri 24, Arkansas 1761 games
- Missouri 30, Arkansas 1758 games
- Missouri 20, Arkansas 1758 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas offense vs Missouri defenseOffense -2.9Defense +4.6Edge Missouri: its defense is 7.5 points better than Arkansas's offense.
Missouri offense vs Arkansas defenseOffense +2.6Defense -1.1Edge Missouri: its offense is 3.7 points better than Arkansas's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas | Missouri | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.17 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.20 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 35.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 31.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 19.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.