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Arkansas vs Tennessee prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARK 15% win85% TENN
16Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record 3–4 · #91 in ratings
Neutral site
Tennessee Volunteers
Record 6–2 · #14 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 91
- Projected
- TENN favored
- Differential
- 14.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tennessee by 14.5
- Projected total
- 46.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 28.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Arkansas wins by 21+
- 0.8%
- Tennessee wins by 21+
- 33.3%
- Median score
- 16–30
- Model expectation
- 16–30.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas wins, bars on the left are Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Tennessee 27, Arkansas 1080 games
- Tennessee 20, Arkansas 1070 games
- Tennessee 27, Arkansas 765 games
- Tennessee 27, Arkansas 1763 games
- Tennessee 34, Arkansas 1060 games
- Tennessee 27, Arkansas 1459 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas offense vs Tennessee defenseOffense -2.9Defense +6.8Edge Tennessee: its defense is 9.7 points better than Arkansas's offense.
Tennessee offense vs Arkansas defenseOffense +3.6Defense -1.1Edge Tennessee: its offense is 4.6 points better than Arkansas's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas | Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.20 | -0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 43.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 37.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 16.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.