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Arkansas vs Texas prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Texas
ARK 9% win91% TEX
14Projected26If ARK upsets
vs
32Projected19If ARK upsetsAway
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record 3–4 · #91 in ratings
Home
Texas Longhorns
Record 5–2 · #9 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ARK | TEX | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 53 | 66 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Long shot9%Arkansas wins on the road
If Arkansas plays at home19% ▲
Arkansas: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Tulsa 34–6)
Texas: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Florida 24–27, Oklahoma 24–27)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Arkansas won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TEX 34, ARK 1084 games
- TEX 30, ARK 784 games
- TEX 34, ARK 778 games
- TEX 27, ARK 776 games
- TEX 27, ARK 1070 games
- Power index
- 34 vs 94
- Projected
- TEX favored
- Differential
- 18.6 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Texas.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas by 18.6
- Projected total
- 45.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 21.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.7%
- Arkansas wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Texas wins by 21+
- 44.9%
- Median score
- 13–31
- Model expectation
- 13.4–32
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas wins, bars on the left are Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Arkansas offense vs Texas defenseOffense -2.9Defense +8.0Edge Texas: its defense is 10.8 points better than Arkansas's offense.
Texas offense vs Arkansas defenseOffense +3.7Defense -1.1Edge Texas: its offense is 4.7 points better than Arkansas's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas | Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.20 | -0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 42.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 34.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 19.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
