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Arkansas vs Tulsa prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARK 39% win61% TLSA
23Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record 3–4 · #91 in ratings
Neutral site
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Record 4–4 · #72 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 48
- Projected
- TLSA favored
- Differential
- 4.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tulsa by 4.2
- Projected total
- 50.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Arkansas wins by 21+
- 5.3%
- Tulsa wins by 21+
- 13.8%
- Median score
- 23–27
- Model expectation
- 22.8–26.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas wins, bars on the left are Tulsa wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Arkansas 24, Tulsa 2066 games
- Tulsa 24, Arkansas 1766 games
- Tulsa 24, Arkansas 2060 games
- Tulsa 20, Arkansas 1760 games
- Tulsa 27, Arkansas 2057 games
- Tulsa 27, Arkansas 2455 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas offense vs Tulsa defenseOffense -2.9Defense +0.1Edge Tulsa: its defense is 3.0 points better than Arkansas's offense.
Tulsa offense vs Arkansas defenseOffense +0.0Defense -1.1Edge Tulsa: its offense is 1.1 points better than Arkansas's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas | Tulsa | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.20 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 40.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 29.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.