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Arkansas vs Utah prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARK 15% win85% UTAH
18Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record 3–4 · #91 in ratings
Neutral site
Utah Utes
Record 7–0 · #12 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 92
- Projected
- UTAH favored
- Differential
- 14.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Utah by 14.9
- Projected total
- 50.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.0%
- Arkansas wins by 21+
- 0.7%
- Utah wins by 21+
- 35.0%
- Median score
- 17–33
- Model expectation
- 17.8–32.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas wins, bars on the left are Utah wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Utah 34, Arkansas 1769 games
- Utah 30, Arkansas 1066 games
- Utah 30, Arkansas 1763 games
- Utah 31, Arkansas 1062 games
- Utah 27, Arkansas 1759 games
- Utah 27, Arkansas 1057 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas offense vs Utah defenseOffense -2.9Defense +5.0Edge Utah: its defense is 7.9 points better than Arkansas's offense.
Utah offense vs Arkansas defenseOffense +5.9Defense -1.1Edge Utah: its offense is 6.9 points better than Arkansas's defense.
| Stat | Arkansas | Utah | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.30 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.20 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 50.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 35.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 14.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.