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Arkansas vs Vanderbilt prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARK 58% win42% VAN
27Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record 3–4 · #91 in ratings
Neutral site
Vanderbilt Commodores
Record 3–5 · #109 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 21
- Projected
- ARK favored
- Differential
- 2.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Arkansas by 2.9
- Projected total
- 50.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.7%
- Went to overtime
- 4.6%
- Arkansas wins by 21+
- 11.9%
- Vanderbilt wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Median score
- 27–23
- Model expectation
- 26.2–23.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Arkansas wins, bars on the left are Vanderbilt wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Arkansas 27, Vanderbilt 2064 games
- Vanderbilt 20, Arkansas 1762 games
- Vanderbilt 24, Arkansas 2061 games
- Arkansas 24, Vanderbilt 2061 games
- Vanderbilt 27, Arkansas 2453 games
- Vanderbilt 27, Arkansas 2052 games
Where the edges are
Arkansas offense vs Vanderbilt defenseOffense -2.9Defense -3.3Even: neither side has a real edge.
Vanderbilt offense vs Arkansas defenseOffense -3.5Defense -1.1Edge Arkansas: its defense is 2.5 points better than Vanderbilt's offense.
| Stat | Arkansas | Vanderbilt | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.20 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 40.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 45.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 22.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7 | 30.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.