Loading the matchup…
Army vs Memphis prediction
Kickoff Sat 7:00 PM CT, at Memphis
ARMY 44% win56% MEM
30Projected
vs
32ProjectedAway
Army Black Knights
Record 5–2 · #49 in ratings
Home
Memphis Tigers
Record 6–2 · #52 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 65 vs 63
- Projected
- MEM favored
- Differential
- 2.4 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Memphis, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 7:00 PM CT, at Memphis.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Memphis by 2.4
- Projected total
- 61.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Army wins by 21+
- 7.1%
- Memphis wins by 21+
- 12.1%
- Median score
- 30–31
- Model expectation
- 29.2–31.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Army wins, bars on the left are Memphis wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Memphis 34, Army 3058 games
- Memphis 34, Army 2754 games
- Army 34, Memphis 2748 games
- Memphis 27, Army 2046 games
- Army 27, Memphis 2346 games
- Army 31, Memphis 2741 games
Where the edges are
Army offense vs Memphis defenseOffense +3.2Defense -1.6Edge Army: its offense is 4.9 points better than Memphis's defense.
Memphis offense vs Army defenseOffense +4.7Defense +0.3Edge Memphis: its offense is 4.4 points better than Army's defense.
| Stat | Army | Memphis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.0% | 48.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 37.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.3 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1 | 23.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.