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Army vs South Florida prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARMY 54% win46% USF
25Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Army Black Knights
Record 5–2 · #49 in ratings
Neutral site
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 65 vs 60
- Projected
- ARMY favored
- Differential
- 1.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Army by 1.6
- Projected total
- 49.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.5%
- Army wins by 21+
- 9.6%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 6.5%
- Median score
- 24–23
- Model expectation
- 24.8–23.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Army wins, bars on the left are South Florida wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Army 20, South Florida 1773 games
- South Florida 24, Army 2070 games
- Army 24, South Florida 1768 games
- Army 24, South Florida 2066 games
- South Florida 27, Army 1761 games
- South Florida 27, Army 2461 games
Where the edges are
Army offense vs South Florida defenseOffense +3.2Defense +4.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
South Florida offense vs Army defenseOffense -2.2Defense +0.3Edge Army: its defense is 2.5 points better than South Florida's offense.
| Stat | Army | South Florida | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.0% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 42.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.3 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.