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Army vs Temple prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARMY 74% win26% TEM
33Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
Army Black Knights
Record 5–2 · #49 in ratings
Neutral site
Temple Owls
Record 2–5 · #102 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 65 vs 26
- Projected
- ARMY favored
- Differential
- 9.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Army by 9.5
- Projected total
- 56.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.3%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Army wins by 21+
- 22.9%
- Temple wins by 21+
- 2.2%
- Median score
- 33–23
- Model expectation
- 32.8–23.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Army wins, bars on the left are Temple wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Army 27, Temple 2062 games
- Army 34, Temple 2759 games
- Army 34, Temple 2458 games
- Army 30, Temple 2458 games
- Army 27, Temple 2454 games
- Army 34, Temple 1753 games
Where the edges are
Army offense vs Temple defenseOffense +3.2Defense -3.7Edge Army: its offense is 7.0 points better than Temple's defense.
Temple offense vs Army defenseOffense -2.3Defense +0.3Edge Army: its defense is 2.6 points better than Temple's offense.
| Stat | Army | Temple | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.21 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.0% | 43.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 46.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.3 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1 | 28.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.