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Army vs Tulsa prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ARMY 60% win40% TLSA
29Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Army Black Knights
Record 5–2 · #49 in ratings
Neutral site
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Record 4–4 · #72 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 65 vs 48
- Projected
- ARMY favored
- Differential
- 3.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Army by 3.6
- Projected total
- 55.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Army wins by 21+
- 13.1%
- Tulsa wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Median score
- 29–24
- Model expectation
- 28.9–25.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Army wins, bars on the left are Tulsa wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Army 27, Tulsa 2058 games
- Army 34, Tulsa 2753 games
- Tulsa 27, Army 2351 games
- Tulsa 31, Army 2747 games
- Army 27, Tulsa 2447 games
- Army 27, Tulsa 2346 games
Where the edges are
Army offense vs Tulsa defenseOffense +3.2Defense +0.1Edge Army: its offense is 3.1 points better than Tulsa's defense.
Tulsa offense vs Army defenseOffense +0.0Defense +0.3Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Army | Tulsa | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.0% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 40.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.3 | 29.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.