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Auburn vs Georgia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AUB 26% win74% UGA
21Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Auburn Tigers
Record 4–3 · #43 in ratings
Neutral site
Georgia Bulldogs
Record 6–1 · #7 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 69 vs 96
- Projected
- UGA favored
- Differential
- 9.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia by 9.3
- Projected total
- 52.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Auburn wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Georgia wins by 21+
- 22.7%
- Median score
- 20–30
- Model expectation
- 21.2–30.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Auburn wins, bars on the left are Georgia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia 27, Auburn 1759 games
- Georgia 34, Auburn 1056 games
- Georgia 34, Auburn 1754 games
- Auburn 24, Georgia 2053 games
- Georgia 30, Auburn 1752 games
- Georgia 23, Auburn 1751 games
Where the edges are
Auburn offense vs Georgia defenseOffense +0.7Defense +5.3Edge Georgia: its defense is 4.6 points better than Auburn's offense.
Georgia offense vs Auburn defenseOffense +8.3Defense +3.6Edge Georgia: its offense is 4.7 points better than Auburn's defense.
| Stat | Auburn | Georgia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.33 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.09 | 0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.4% | 53.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 34.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.4 | 43.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1 | 15.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.