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Auburn vs Vanderbilt prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
AUB 77% win23% VAN
30Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
Auburn Tigers
Record 4–3 · #43 in ratings
Neutral site
Vanderbilt Commodores
Record 3–5 · #109 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 69 vs 21
- Projected
- AUB favored
- Differential
- 11.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Auburn by 11.0
- Projected total
- 49.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Auburn wins by 21+
- 26.0%
- Vanderbilt wins by 21+
- 1.8%
- Median score
- 30–17
- Model expectation
- 29.8–18.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Auburn wins, bars on the left are Vanderbilt wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Auburn 27, Vanderbilt 1778 games
- Auburn 34, Vanderbilt 1059 games
- Auburn 20, Vanderbilt 1759 games
- Auburn 24, Vanderbilt 1758 games
- Auburn 34, Vanderbilt 1758 games
- Auburn 27, Vanderbilt 2057 games
Where the edges are
Auburn offense vs Vanderbilt defenseOffense +0.7Defense -3.3Edge Auburn: its offense is 4.0 points better than Vanderbilt's defense.
Vanderbilt offense vs Auburn defenseOffense -3.5Defense +3.6Edge Auburn: its defense is 7.2 points better than Vanderbilt's offense.
| Stat | Auburn | Vanderbilt | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.09 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.4% | 40.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 45.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.4 | 22.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1 | 30.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.